SJ-IRAC Risk & Route Engine (Closed Loop)

Version: 1.3.0
Last Updated: 2026-02-03

I. Risk Levels (Outcome-Oriented)

A: Strong legal basis + strong evidence + low discretion exposure  
B: Clear legal basis + minor evidence gaps (curable)  
C: Arguable legal basis + weak or unstable proof  
D: High discretion / procedural dependency; low predictability  
E: Fatal defect(s) or negative expected value

II. Mandatory Risk Dimensions (5D Model)

Each case must be evaluated on:

1. Substantive (法律适用与构成要件)
2. Evidentiary (证据强度与抗质证能力)
3. Procedural (时效、主体、程序稳定性)
4. Discretionary (自由裁量依赖度)
5. Cost–EV (投入产出比)

Any “blind zone” → automatic downgrade.

III. Kill Gates (Hard Stop Rules)

G1: Extreme similarity + high market/channel overlap
    → Primary route structurally disadvantaged

G2: Core evidence unverifiable, untimely, or non-repeatable
    → Proof chain collapse risk

G3: No legal route with ≥ medium acceptance probability
    → Structural infeasibility

G4: Procedural fatal risk (v1.3)
    → standing / limitation / admissibility failure

G5: Cost–EV inversion (v1.3)
    → Expected value < operational cost

IV. Route Priority Matrix

Default Priority:

P1: Art.30 (Similarity / Confusion)
P2: Art.11 (Distinctiveness)
P3: Art.32 (Prior Rights)
P4: Art.4 / 44 (Bad Faith / Order Disruption)

Principle:
Objective grounds > discretionary grounds

V. Route Selection Rules (Engineering Logic)

1. If P1 viable and evidence ≥ Silver
   → Select as Primary Route

2. If P1 weak AND P2 strong
   → Switch P2 to Primary

3. If prior rights provable (time + continuity + recognition)
   → Add P3 as Support Route

4. If bad-faith pattern is objective + repeatable
   → Add P4 as Auxiliary Route

5. Prohibition:
   No route stacking without independent evidentiary support

VI. Risk Calibration Algorithm

Step 1: Kill-Gate Scan
- If any G1–G5 triggered → Level E (default)

Step 2: Dimension Scoring
- ≥2 weak dimensions → downgrade to ≥ C
- Discretion dominant (>50%) → downgrade to ≥ C

Step 3: Reinforcement Feasibility
- If no viable reinforcement path → downgrade to ≥ D

Step 4: EV Validation
- If EV < Cost after reinforcement → downgrade to E

VII. Reinforcement Toolkit

If risk ≥ C, prioritize:

1. Evidence Reinforcement
   - Replace self-produced materials
   - Add third-party / transactional proof

2. Route Optimization
   - Narrow legal focus
   - Remove low-signal grounds

3. Argument Re-Engineering
   - Rebuild element mapping
   - Enhance comparative logic

4. Cost Control
   - Reduce exhibit volume
   - Limit auxiliary routes

VIII. Decision Output (Standardized)

Each case must output:

- Decision:
  Proceed / Cautious Proceed / Abort

- Risk Level:
  A / B / C / D / E

- Triggered Gates:
  G1–G5 (if any)

- Top 3 Risk Points

- Minimum Reinforcement Set

System Rule:
"No evidence, no route.
No route, no filing.
No EV, no action."