The S&P 500 After a Copper-to-Gold One-Year Low — 15-Year What-If

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The copper-to-gold ratio since 2011, with every past one-year low marked
Daily copper ETF (CPER) divided by gold ETF (GLD). Red dots mark days the ratio closed at a fresh one-year low, with a 90-day gap so the same decline is not double-counted.
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Typical S&P 500 move at each horizon, event vs plain historical average
Green bars: the typical move after past one-year-low events. Grey bars: the S&P 500's plain historical average over the same sample. Dashed line is zero.
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How the S&P 500 moved three months after each past event
One bar per past one-year-low event, sorted best to worst. Green means the S&P 500 was higher three months later; red means lower. Dashed line is zero.
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Every past one-year-low event, row by row
Newest first. Event day, market era at the time, the ratio on that day, and how the S&P 500 moved a month, three months, six months, and a year later. Dashes mean the horizon has not yet finished.
Event day
Era
Ratio
A month later
Three months later
Six months later
A year later
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References

Trigger source: every trading day since a copper ETF (CPER) launched in November 2011 where the copper-to-gold ratio closed at a fresh one-year low, with a 90-day gap so the same decline is not double-counted. The ratio is daily CPER close divided by a gold ETF (GLD) daily close.

Data source: Alva SDK adjusted daily closes for CPER, GLD, and the S&P 500 (via SPY). Forward moves are SPY close on the event day compared to SPY close 21, 63, 126, and 252 trading days later — roughly a month, three months, six months, and a year.

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